In Brief: What Is Happening with Prices
Housing prices in Astana keep rising in nominal terms in 2026: in August a new-build square meter cost KZT 747,116 (+1.1% m/m) and resale KZT 740,356 (+1.2%). Primary housing is rising fastest — by Halyk Finance estimates, +19.1% year on year in July.
But other indicators point to cooling: across Kazakhstan resale prices are growing more slowly than inflation, July deals were 6.5% fewer than a year earlier, and market mortgages have shrunk. There is no data pointing to a sharp price fall — continued nominal growth with a slowdown in real terms is more likely.
Update, September 14, 2026. The previous version contained invented figures ("+15.2%", "2,847 apartments", "KZT 142bn of investment"), an outdated forecast by housing class and a quote from a non-existent analytics department. The article has been rewritten using data from the BNS, the National Bank and Halyk Finance.
January–August in Review: BNS Data
| Month of 2026 | New builds, KZT per m² | Resale, KZT per m² | Rent, KZT per m² per month |
|---|---|---|---|
| May | 734,534 | 725,713 | — |
| June | 739,033 | 727,363 | 5,646 |
| July | 739,033 | 731,722 | 5,796 |
| August | 747,116 | 740,356 | 6,079 |
Source: BNS (via Tengrinews, Inform.kz and 24.kz).
- From May to August Astana new builds rose 1.7% and resale 2.0%; rents rose 7.7% from June to August (our calculation from BNS data).
- In January–May new builds in the capital were 18.5% and resale 10.8% more expensive than in the same period of 2025.
- In July, according to Kursiv, annual growth in Astana was 19.1% for new builds and 12% for resale.
- Deals: in July Kazakhstan recorded 37,200 housing purchase deals — 6.5% fewer than a year earlier.
What Will Drive Prices to Year-End
- The base rate. On September 4 the National Bank cut it to 16.25%; the 2026 inflation forecast is 9–11%. The next decision is on October 23, 2026.
- Mortgages. Since July 1 the effective rate on new loans has been capped at 20%. In Q1 2026 subsidized programs accounted for 85.1% of issuance, while market mortgage volume fell 53.6% (Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan data via Tengrinews).
- Subsidized funding. The next "7-20-25" tranche — KZT 25bn at the start of each quarter, i.e. in early October; the Umai program has been running since August 31.
- VAT and costs. Housing sales in projects started after January 1, 2026 carry 16% VAT.
- Supply. Astana completed 4.81 million m² of housing in 2025; BI Group has announced several complexes in the capital for completion in Q3–Q4 2026, including GreenLine.Verda, Nexpo Classic Style and Capital Park Art.
- Taxes. For housing bought from 2026 the exemption on sale starts after two years of ownership, and for shared construction after three years. This makes quick resale less profitable.
Three Scenarios to the End of 2026
| Scenario | Conditions | What it could mean for prices |
|---|---|---|
| Base case | The rate falls gradually, inflation stays within the 9–11% forecast, subsidized programs operate within their limits | Nominal growth continues; resale rises around inflation or slower, primary housing faster |
| Acceleration | A faster rate cut, extra funds for subsidized programs | Rising demand and prices, above all in segments eligible for the programs |
| Cooling | The rate stays high, inflation exceeds the forecast, subsidized funding shrinks | Fewer deals and more bargaining; falling real prices with nominal stability |
The scenarios are our assessment of published data, not a forecast of specific prices.
The outlook for next year, taking into account the National Bank's higher inflation benchmark (6.5–8.5% for 2027): "Astana Real Estate Price Outlook for 2027".
What It Means for Buyers and Sellers
- Buying to live in — financing terms matter more than trying to time the bottom: compare programs in "Subsidized Mortgages 2026" and "Mortgages in Astana".
- Investing — calculate returns with vacancies and taxes, and plan the holding period: step-by-step guide.
- Selling — use district medians rather than the most expensive listings: with fewer deals, an inflated price lengthens the sale. District prices are in the Astana price index.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will apartments in Astana get cheaper in 2026?
There is no data pointing to a sharp fall: in August 2026 new-build and resale prices in Astana rose 1.1% and 1.2% month on month. At the same time, resale housing across Kazakhstan is getting cheaper in real terms and there are fewer deals than a year earlier.
What does a square meter cost in Astana now?
According to BNS data for August 2026 — KZT 747,116 for new builds and KZT 740,356 on the resale market. Rent is KZT 6,079 per m² per month.
When is the National Bank's next base-rate decision?
October 23, 2026. On September 4 the rate was cut to 16.25% a year.
Should I wait for a rate cut before buying?
A rate cut makes loans cheaper but can support demand and prices. If you need the apartment to live in and can afford the payment, the terms of a specific program matter more; an investor should decide based on a return calculation, not expectations.
How have rents changed in Astana?
According to the BNS, the average rent rose from KZT 5,646 per m² in June to KZT 6,079 in August 2026. According to Krisha.kz, the median one-room rent rose from KZT 220,000 to 240,000 on August 1–18.
Sources
- 24.kz, 09.09.2026: August housing and rent prices per BNS (in Russian) — 24.kz
- Tengrinews, 10.08.2026: July housing prices per BNS (in Russian) — tengrinews.kz
- Inform.kz, 09.07.2026: June housing prices per BNS (in Russian) — inform.kz
- Tengrinews, 09.06.2026: May and January–May housing prices per BNS (in Russian) — tengrinews.kz
- Kursiv, 10.08.2026: annual price change in Astana and Almaty (in Russian) — kz.kursiv.media
- Kursiv, 26.08.2026: Halyk Finance estimate and deal numbers (in Russian) — kz.kursiv.media
- National Bank of Kazakhstan, 04.09.2026: base-rate decision (in Russian) — nationalbank.kz
- Tengrinews: the mortgage market in Q1 2026 (in Russian) — tengrinews.kz
- Krisha.kz: mortgage effective-rate cap from July 1, 2026 (in Russian) — krisha.kz
- Krisha.kz: "7-20-25" terms in 2026 (in Russian) — krisha.kz
- Forbes Kazakhstan, 27.08.2026: the Umai program (in Russian) — forbes.kz
- LSM.kz: VAT in the housing market from 2026 (in Russian) — lsm.kz
- BI Group: new builds in Astana and completion dates (in Russian) — bi.group
- Bureau of National Statistics: housing completions in 2025 (in Russian) — stat.gov.kz
- Krisha.kz: what is happening with rents (in Russian) — krisha.kz