In Brief: What Is Happening with Prices
Housing prices in Astana are rising in nominal terms in 2026, but growth almost stalled in the autumn: in October a new-build square meter cost KZT 746,490 (+0.1% m/m) and resale KZT 742,709 (+0.2%). Over the year new builds rose 10.2% and resale 9.5% with inflation in the capital at 10.0%, so in real terms prices are barely growing.
Annual growth has slowed noticeably: in July, according to Kursiv, primary housing was up 19.1% year on year. After the September jump (+5.1% m/m to KZT 6,388 per m²) rents dipped slightly in October to KZT 6,352 but are up 20.1% year on year. There is no data pointing to a sharp price fall — nominal stability to year-end is more likely.
Update, September 14, 2026. The previous version contained invented figures ("+15.2%", "2,847 apartments", "KZT 142bn of investment"), an outdated forecast by housing class and a quote from a non-existent analytics department. The article has been rewritten using data from the BNS, the National Bank and Halyk Finance. Update, November 10, 2026: BNS data for September and October added; the scenarios were revised to reflect slower price growth.
January–October in Review: BNS Data
| Month of 2026 | New builds, KZT per m² | Resale, KZT per m² | Rent, KZT per m² per month |
|---|---|---|---|
| May | 734,534 | 725,713 | — |
| June | 739,033 | 727,363 | 5,646 |
| July | 739,033 | 731,722 | 5,796 |
| August | 747,116 | 740,356 | 6,079 |
| September | 745,887 | 741,532 | 6,388 |
| October | 746,490 | 742,709 | 6,352 |
Source: BNS (via Tengrinews, Inform.kz, 24.kz, National Business and AIR Press).
- From May to October Astana new builds rose 1.6% and resale 2.3%; rents rose 12.5% from June to October (our calculation from BNS data). Since August new-build prices have barely moved: KZT 747,116 in August, KZT 745,887 in September and KZT 746,490 in October.
- In January–May new builds in the capital were 18.5% and resale 10.8% more expensive than in the same period of 2025.
- Annual growth has slowed: in July, according to Kursiv, new builds in Astana were up 19.1% year on year and resale 12%; in October, per the BNS, 10.2% and 9.5%.
- Rents: in September rents in Astana rose 5.1% in a month — in September they grew faster only in 2021 and 2022 (Data Hub based on BNS data, via National Business); in October they fell 0.6%.
- Deals: in July Kazakhstan recorded 37,200 housing purchase deals — 6.5% fewer than a year earlier.
What Will Drive Prices to Year-End
- The base rate. On October 23 the National Bank cut it to 15.75% (16.25% since September 4); the 2026 inflation forecast is 9–11% (September). The next decision is on December 4, 2026; the National Bank sees a low probability of a rate change before the end of 2026.
- Mortgages. The mortgage effective-rate cap is 25% until the end of 2026 and 20% from 2027 with a down payment of 30% or more. (Corrected on November 3, 2026: this previously said wrongly that a 20% effective-rate cap applied from July 1, 2026.) In Q1 2026 subsidized programs accounted for 85.1% of issuance, while market mortgage volume fell 53.6% (Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan data via Tengrinews).
- Subsidized funding. The last "7-20-25" tranche of 2026, KZT 25bn, opened on October 1; the second Umai intake (KZT 20bn) started on November 3; since October 15 Otbasy Bank has been issuing bridge loans with partner developers without a minimum savings period.
- VAT and costs. Housing sales in projects started after January 1, 2026 carry 16% VAT.
- Supply. Astana completed 4.81 million m² of housing in 2025; BI Group has announced several complexes in the capital for completion in Q3–Q4 2026, including GreenLine.Verda, Nexpo Classic Style and Capital Park Art.
- Taxes. For housing bought from 2026 the exemption on sale starts after two years of ownership, and for shared construction after three years. This makes quick resale less profitable.
Three Scenarios to the End of 2026
| Scenario | Conditions | What it could mean for prices |
|---|---|---|
| Base case | The rate stays at 15.75% to year-end, inflation around 9–10%, subsidized programs operate within their limits | Prices close to October levels: nominal stability or slight growth, no growth in real terms; rents without sharp moves after the seasonal peak |
| Acceleration | An unexpected rate cut on December 4, extra funds for subsidized programs | Rising demand and prices, above all in segments eligible for the programs |
| Cooling | The rate stays high, inflation exceeds the forecast, subsidized funding shrinks | Fewer deals and more bargaining; falling real prices with nominal stability |
The scenarios are our assessment of published data, not a forecast of specific prices.
The outlook for next year, taking into account the National Bank's higher inflation benchmark (6.5–8.5% for 2027): "Astana Real Estate Price Outlook for 2027".
What It Means for Buyers and Sellers
- Buying to live in — financing terms matter more than trying to time the bottom: compare programs in "Subsidized Mortgages 2026" and "Mortgages in Astana".
- Investing — calculate returns with vacancies and taxes, and plan the holding period: step-by-step guide.
- Selling — use district medians rather than the most expensive listings: with fewer deals, an inflated price lengthens the sale. District prices are in the Astana price index.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will apartments in Astana get cheaper in 2026?
There is no data pointing to a sharp fall: in October 2026 new-build and resale prices in Astana rose 0.1% and 0.2% month on month and 10.2% and 9.5% year on year. Adjusted for inflation in the capital (10.0%), prices are barely growing in real terms.
What does a square meter cost in Astana now?
According to BNS data for October 2026 — KZT 746,490 for new builds and KZT 742,709 on the resale market. Rent is KZT 6,352 per m² per month.
When is the National Bank's next base-rate decision?
December 4, 2026. On October 23 the rate was cut to 15.75% a year.
Should I wait for a rate cut before buying?
A rate cut makes loans cheaper but can support demand and prices. If you need the apartment to live in and can afford the payment, the terms of a specific program matter more; an investor should decide based on a return calculation, not expectations.
How have rents changed in Astana?
According to the BNS, the average rent rose from KZT 5,646 per m² in June to KZT 6,388 in September (+5.1% in September alone) and dipped slightly in October to KZT 6,352; it is up 20.1% year on year. In Krisha.kz listings as of November 4, 2026 the median one-room rent is about KZT 240,000 and two-room about KZT 320,000.
Sources
- 24.kz, 09.09.2026: August housing and rent prices per BNS (in Russian) — 24.kz
- 24.kz, 09.11.2026: October housing and rent prices per BNS (in Russian) — 24.kz
- AIR Press, 09.11.2026: October new-build and resale prices per BNS (in Russian) — airpress.kz
- National Business, 10.10.2026: September housing and rent prices per BNS (in Russian) — nationalbusiness.kz
- Bureau of National Statistics: inflation in Kazakhstan, October 2026 (in Russian) — stat.gov.kz
- Krisha.kz: the last "7-20-25" tranche of 2026 (in Russian) — krisha.kz
- Krisha.kz: second Umai intake from November 3, 2026 (in Russian) — krisha.kz
- Otbasy Bank, 14.10.2026: loans with partner developers without waiting (in Russian) — hcsbk.kz
- Tengrinews, 10.08.2026: July housing prices per BNS (in Russian) — tengrinews.kz
- Inform.kz, 09.07.2026: June housing prices per BNS (in Russian) — inform.kz
- Tengrinews, 09.06.2026: May and January–May housing prices per BNS (in Russian) — tengrinews.kz
- Kursiv, 10.08.2026: annual price change in Astana and Almaty (in Russian) — kz.kursiv.media
- Kursiv, 26.08.2026: Halyk Finance estimate and deal numbers (in Russian) — kz.kursiv.media
- National Bank of Kazakhstan, 04.09.2026: base-rate decision (in Russian) — nationalbank.kz
- National Bank of Kazakhstan, 23.10.2026: base rate cut to 15.75%, next decision on December 4 (in Russian) — nationalbank.kz
- Tengrinews: the mortgage market in Q1 2026 (in Russian) — tengrinews.kz
- National Bank of Kazakhstan, 01.07.2026: mortgage effective-rate cap 25% until January 1, 2027 (in Russian) — nationalbank.kz
- Krisha.kz: "7-20-25" terms in 2026 (in Russian) — krisha.kz
- Forbes Kazakhstan, 27.08.2026: the Umai program (in Russian) — forbes.kz
- LSM.kz: VAT in the housing market from 2026 (in Russian) — lsm.kz
- BI Group: new builds in Astana and completion dates (in Russian) — bi.group
- Bureau of National Statistics: housing completions in 2025 (in Russian) — stat.gov.kz
- Krisha.kz: what is happening with rents (in Russian) — krisha.kz