Astana Real Estate Investment Analysis 2026: Returns, Risks and Choosing a Location

Instead of a "top locations with 12%+ returns" list — an honest method: we calculate returns from official data, compare them with inflation and rates, and look at the factors that actually drive an investor's result.

Astana real estate investment analysis: return calculation
Astana real estate investment analysis: return calculation

In Brief: What Property in Astana Earns

≈9%
gross rental yield at BNS average prices
9.8%
annual inflation, August 2026
16.25%
NBK base rate since September 4
−0.7%
real resale price change y/y (July, Kazakhstan)
Key points

By BNS averages (June 2026), an apartment in Astana earns about 9% a year in gross rental yield — roughly in line with inflation. In August, at the seasonal rent peak (KZT 6,079 per m² with resale at KZT 740,356), the same calculation gives about 10%. After vacancies, costs and taxes the net yield is lower, and resale prices are currently not rising in real terms.

So in 2026 an investor's result is driven not by "trendy locations" but by the entry price, the actual rent of the specific apartment, the source of financing and taxes.

Update, September 13, 2026. The previous version contained unverifiable yield figures by location and references to residential complexes whose existence could not be confirmed. The article has been rewritten on official statistics.

How to Calculate Returns: Formula and Example

  1. Gross yield = annual rent ÷ purchase price.
  2. Net yield = (rent minus vacancy, owner costs and taxes) ÷ purchase price.
  3. Total return = net yield + change in the apartment's price.
  4. Real return = total return − inflation.
IndicatorValueHow it is derived
Price of a 40 m² apartment≈KZT 29.1mKZT 727,363 per m² × 40 (BNS, resale, June 2026)
Monthly rent≈KZT 225.8kKZT 5,646 per m² × 40 (BNS, June 2026)
Gross yield≈9.3%rent × 12 ÷ price
Net yield (example)≈6.8%assumptions: 1 month vacancy a year and 20% of rent for costs and taxes
Real return (example)≈4–5%if the price grows 8% a year with inflation around 10%

Our illustrative calculation. Vacancy, cost and price-growth assumptions are notional; plug your own values into the calculator.

Test your property in the ROI calculator — it accounts for loan payments, costs and price growth.

Five Factors That Drive the Result

  • Entry price. At comparable rents, a cheaper apartment yields more per tenge invested. District medians are below and in the price index.
  • Transport. According to the National Bank, the LRT launch added 4.6% to 10.5% to asking prices near stations — but that premium is already partly priced in (analysis).
  • New supply. In 2025 Astana completed 4.81 million m² of housing — more than any region. When large complexes are completed, many apartments hit the rental market at once, and rents in a new building may be lower than expected.
  • Seasonal demand. Rental demand peaks in August: in August 1–18, 2026 the median one-room rent in Astana rose from KZT 220k to 240k, up 9.1% (Krisha.kz).
  • Taxes and financing. For housing bought from 2026, the tax exemption on sale starts after two years of ownership; a market mortgage (up to 20% effective rate) costs more than the rental yield.

Entry Price by District

DistrictMedian 1-room, resaleWhat investors should consider
YesilKZT 27mHighest entry price — lower yield per tenge invested at comparable rents
NuraKZT 24.5mLots of new supply: landlord competition rises when new phases are completed
SarayshykKZT 21.9mRailway station and 5 LRT stations; the district is still taking shape
AlmatyKZT 20.55mEstablished infrastructure; cheaper entry than Yesil, Nura and Sarayshyk
BaikonurKZT 18.9mLow entry price, but demand varies widely by neighborhood
SaryarkaKZT 18.5mCheapest entry; budget for renovation in older buildings

Prices — Krisha.kz median asking price (2026). There are no official rent statistics by district, so check a specific apartment's yield against nearby rental listings.

Detailed reviews: "Astana Districts 2026" and "The Cheapest Apartments in Astana".

Risks for 2026–2027

  • Real prices. Resale housing across Kazakhstan fell 0.7% year on year in July after inflation; deal numbers are declining.
  • Expensive money. The base rate is 16.25%, and the National Bank raised its 2027 inflation forecast to 6.5–8.5%: a quick drop in loan costs is unlikely.
  • VAT on new projects. Housing sales in buildings started after January 1, 2026 carry 16% VAT — pressure on launch prices.
  • Deal and construction risks. Check resale documents and how buyers' money is protected in new builds.

Next year's scenarios: "2027 Price Outlook".

A Step-by-Step Investor Plan

  1. Define the goal: rental income, capital preservation or resale — it determines the property and holding period.
  2. Collect real rent data for the chosen building or neighborhood, not city averages.
  3. Calculate net and real returns with conservative vacancy and cost assumptions.
  4. Compare with alternatives — for example, deposit returns at the current base rate.
  5. Check the property and tax consequencestax on sale and legal due diligence.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the rental yield of an apartment in Astana?

By BNS averages for June 2026 (rent KZT 5,646 per m² per month, resale KZT 727,363 per m²), the gross yield is about 9% a year; on August data, at the seasonal rent peak, about 10%. Net yield after vacancies, costs and taxes is lower.

Is investing in Astana real estate worthwhile in 2026?

It depends on the entry price and financing. Buying with your own money, the rental yield is roughly comparable with inflation; with a market mortgage (up to 20% effective rate) the payment exceeds rental income. Resale prices are currently not rising in real terms.

How do I calculate an apartment's return?

Divide annual rent by the purchase price — that is the gross yield. For net yield subtract vacancy, owner costs and taxes; for real return add the price change and subtract inflation.

Does the LRT increase an apartment's yield?

The National Bank estimated asking prices near stations rose 4.6–10.5% depending on the segment. For a new buyer that premium is partly priced in, so the rental yield does not automatically rise.

Sources

  • Inform.kz, 09.07.2026: housing and rent prices per BNS (in Russian) — inform.kz
  • 24.kz, 09.09.2026: August housing and rent prices per BNS (in Russian) — 24.kz
  • National Bank of Kazakhstan, 04.09.2026: base rate and inflation forecast (in Russian) — nationalbank.kz
  • Kursiv, 26.08.2026: resale cheaper in real terms (in Russian) — kz.kursiv.media
  • Krisha.kz: resale prices by district (in Russian) — krisha.kz
  • Krisha.kz: what is happening with rents (in Russian) — krisha.kz
  • Tengrinews: National Bank study on LRT and prices (in Russian) — tengrinews.kz
  • Bureau of National Statistics: housing completions in 2025 (in Russian) — stat.gov.kz
  • Mybuh.kz: tax on selling an apartment (in Russian) — mybuh.kz

Capital Realty

An analytics team covering the Astana real estate market. Facts are checked against official sources — see our editorial policy.