Astana Real Estate Market: the October 2026 Digest

The Month in Brief

• The National Bank cut the base rate to 15.75% and called the probability of another change before year-end low.
• Inflation in Kazakhstan slowed to 9.2%; in Astana it was 10.0%.
• Housing prices in Astana have barely moved since August: in October new builds rose 0.1% month on month and resale 0.2%.
• After the September jump (+5.1%) rents dipped 0.6% in October but are up 20.1% year on year.
• The last "7-20-25" tranche of 2026 opened, the second Umai intake started on November 3, and Otbasy Bank simplified bridge loans with partner developers.

The Rate: a Cut to 15.75%

On October 23 the National Bank cut the base rate to 15.75% a year with a ±1 pp corridor (from 16.25% since September 4). The regulator explained that annual inflation has been falling for the twelfth month in a row, to 9.3% in September; household inflation expectations a year ahead fell to 11.8%, and professional market participants expect 9.5% at the end of 2026 and 8.3% in 2027.

At the same time the National Bank considers the probability of a rate change before the end of 2026 low and warns that inflation may speed up towards year-end because of a low base effect in utility tariffs. The next decision is on December 4, 2026. For the housing market this means market mortgages will stay expensive: banks' autumn rates on resale housing are 19.5–24% a year, and the mortgage effective-rate cap is 25% until the end of the year.

Inflation: 9.2% Nationwide, 10.0% in Astana

According to the BNS, annual inflation in Kazakhstan was 9.2% in October 2026 (9.3% in September); prices rose 0.5% in the month. Food was up 7.6% year on year, non-food goods 10.4% and paid services 10.3%. Annual inflation in Astana was 10.0%.

For owners and tenants the key line is "housing rent" in the consumer price index: across Kazakhstan it rose 17.4% over the year — almost twice as fast as overall inflation.

Prices: Growth Has Almost Stalled

Source: BNS (via 24.kz, AIR Press, Tengrinews and National Business); October data were published on November 9, 2026.

Since August the average new-build price in Astana has held at about KZT 746,000–747,000 per m², while resale prices are inching up — by 0.2% in October. Annual growth has slowed noticeably: in the summer primary housing in the capital was up almost 19% year on year, in October 10.2%, and resale 9.5%. With inflation in Astana at 10.0%, housing is barely getting more expensive in real terms.

New builds in Astana and Almaty now cost almost the same: KZT 746,490 and KZT 746,673 per m². On the resale market Almaty is pricier — KZT 756,330 versus KZT 742,709. Across Kazakhstan new builds average KZT 629,463 per m² (+10.4% y/y) and resale KZT 639,009 (+7.1%).

We calculated district prices from Krisha.kz listings on November 4–5: the median one-room apartment ranges from KZT 19.5 million in Saryarka to KZT 28.0 million in Yesil, KZT 26.3 million on the left bank and KZT 21.5 million on the right. Tables are in the Astana price index and in "Astana's Left and Right Banks".

Rents: After the September Peak

September was the most expensive month of the year for tenants: according to the BNS, the average rent in Astana rose 5.1% in a month to KZT 6,388 per m² and 21.4% year on year. By Data Hub's count, rents grew faster in September only in 2021 and 2022. In October the rate dipped to KZT 6,352 (−0.6%); across Kazakhstan rents also fell 0.6%.

In Krisha.kz listings as of November 4 the median one-room rent in Astana is about KZT 240,000 a month, two-room about KZT 320,000 and three-room (as of November 10) about KZT 450,000. Renting is most expensive in Yesil and cheapest in Baikonur and Saryarka; details are in "Astana Rents by District".

Mortgages: the Last "7-20-25" Tranche and the Second Umai Intake

• "7-20-25". Since October 1 banks have been accepting applications under the last tranche of 2026 — KZT 25bn out of KZT 100bn for the year. In nine months the program issued 3,696 loans worth KZT 74.9bn. The terms are unchanged: 7%, a 20% down payment, completed new housing only.
• Umai. The second intake started on November 3 with KZT 20bn; the first KZT 9bn tranche is almost used up, with 420 loans issued. The rate is 14.8% on the bridge loan, a down payment from 20% in Astana and loans up to KZT 50 million.
• Otbasy Bank. Since October 15 a bridge loan at 8.5% for apartments from partner developers (BI Group first) can be obtained without the usual six-month wait on a deposit; Nauryz approvals for about 2,000 participants have been extended to December 30.
• Market mortgages. Banks charge 19.5–24% a year on resale housing. The effective-rate cap is 25% until January 1, 2027, then 20% with a down payment of 30% or more and 25% otherwise. All programs: "Subsidized Mortgages 2026".

What Is New on the Site

• New guides: "Astana's Left and Right Banks" with a map and prices, "Kazakhstan Without a Residence Permit" (90 days in 180, registration, QazETA), "Rents by District" and "The Cheapest Apartments".
• Corrections and updates: on November 3 we corrected the claim of a 20% effective-rate cap from July 1 (it is actually 25% until 2027); on November 5 the base rate and district price medians were updated across the site; on November 10, the price index and the year-end outlook.

What to Watch in November and December

• December 1 — November inflation (BNS).
• December 4 — the National Bank's base-rate decision.
• Around December 10 — November housing prices; after that we will update the price index and publish the November digest.
• Until December 30 — the extended Nauryz approvals are valid; "7-20-25" and Umai limits are finite, so it is better not to delay applications.
• From January 1, 2027 — a new mortgage effective-rate cap: 20% with a down payment of 30% or more.

Sources

• National Bank of Kazakhstan, 23.10.2026: base rate cut to 15.75%, next decision on December 4 (in Russian) — nationalbank.kz
• Bureau of National Statistics: inflation in Kazakhstan, October 2026 (in Russian) — stat.gov.kz
• 24.kz, 09.11.2026: October housing prices and rents per BNS (in Russian) — 24.kz
• AIR Press, 09.11.2026: October new-build and resale prices per BNS (in Russian) — airpress.kz
• Tengrinews, 09.11.2026: October housing prices and rents per BNS (in Russian) — tengrinews.kz
• National Business, 10.10.2026: Astana rents in September per BNS and Data Hub (in Russian) — nationalbusiness.kz
• Krisha.kz: the last "7-20-25" tranche of 2026 (in Russian) — krisha.kz
• Krisha.kz: second Umai intake from November 3, 2026 (in Russian) — krisha.kz
• Otbasy Bank, 14.10.2026: loans with partner developers without waiting and extended Nauryz approvals (in Russian) — hcsbk.kz
• Krisha.kz: mortgages in Kazakhstan — rates and terms of all banks, autumn 2026 (in Russian) — krisha.kz
• National Bank of Kazakhstan, 01.07.2026: mortgage effective-rate cap 25% until January 1, 2027 (in Russian) — nationalbank.kz
• Krisha.kz: apartment sale listings in Astana — district medians calculated by Capital Realty, November 4–5, 2026 (in Russian) — krisha.kz
• Krisha.kz: apartment rental listings in Astana — medians calculated by Capital Realty, November 4 and 10, 2026 (in Russian) — krisha.kz