In Brief: What to Expect in 2027
In 2027 housing prices in Astana will most likely keep rising roughly in line with inflation: new builds by 7–10%, resale by 5–8%, rents by 6–9%. In real terms (after inflation) that is close to zero for resale and modest growth for the primary market.
The main uncertainties are the pace of base-rate cuts, the funding of subsidized mortgages and how 16% VAT on new projects feeds into launch prices.
Below are the data behind the outlook, three scenarios and practical takeaways. We will revise the outlook after Q3 results are published and the National Bank's rate decision on October 23, 2026.
Where the Market Stands: Numbers as of September 2026
According to the Bureau of National Statistics, in August 2026 a square meter of new housing in Astana cost KZT 747,116, resale KZT 740,356 and rent KZT 6,079 per m² per month. In January–May 2026 new builds in the capital were 18.5% and resale 10.8% more expensive than in the same period of 2025. Across Kazakhstan in July, primary housing rose 14.6% y/y and resale 9.5% with inflation at 10.2%: in real terms resale fell 0.7%. July deals totaled 37,200 — 6.5% fewer than a year earlier (Halyk Finance, Kursiv).
What Will Drive Prices in 2027
- Inflation and the base rate. The National Bank cut the rate to 16.25% but raised its 2027 inflation forecast to 6.5–8.5% (from 5.5–7.5%) and expects 9–11% in 2026. Household inflation expectations are 12.1%. Slow rate cuts keep market mortgages expensive.
- Mortgages. Since July 1, 2026 the effective rate on new loans is capped at 20%, which is still above rental yields. In Q1 2026, 85.1% of new lending went through subsidized programs — so demand depends heavily on their limits and tranches.
- 16% VAT on new projects. Housing sales in buildings started after January 1, 2026 are subject to VAT; earlier projects are exempt. Pressure on launch prices will build as such projects go on sale — mainly in 2027–2028.
- Supply. Astana completed 4.81 million m² of housing in 2025 — more than any region. The largest developer plans to complete 9 complexes in the capital in 2027, and the master plan envisages about 30 million m² of new housing by 2035.
- Incomes. The average salary in Astana in Q2 2026 was KZT 647,920, but the national real wage index was 98.2%: real incomes are not growing, which limits demand.
- Infrastructure. According to the National Bank, the LRT launch added 4.6–10.5% to prices near stations depending on the segment and distance — local premiums will keep forming around the new transit network.
In April 2026 Halyk Finance analysts expected primary housing prices to rise roughly in line with inflation in the second half of 2026 — consistent with our base scenario.
Three Scenarios for Astana in 2027
| Scenario | Conditions | New builds | Resale | Rents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base | Inflation within the NBK forecast range (6.5–8.5%), gradual base-rate cuts, subsidized programs funded at current levels | +7–10% | +5–8% | +6–9% |
| Faster growth | Quicker rate cuts, expanded subsidized mortgages, strong demand for new VAT-bearing projects | +10–14% | +8–11% | +8–12% |
| Conservative | Inflation above forecast, the rate stays high, program funding is cut, demand keeps falling | +3–6% | 0–4% | +2–5% |
Nominal price change over 2027. Capital Realty editorial estimate based on NBK, BNS, Halyk Finance, AFK and Homsters data; not a guarantee.
In every scenario new builds grow faster than resale: they carry VAT on new projects and most subsidized lending ("7-20-25" covers new housing only). We covered the primary–resale gap in "New Build or Resale".
What It Means for Buyers and Investors
- For owner-occupiers there is little point waiting for a noticeable price drop: in the base scenario prices rise with inflation. Getting into a subsidized program and choosing a project with clear buyer protection matters more.
- Investors should count real returns: if resale grows with inflation, rent — not price growth — is the main income. Factor in tax on selling within two years of ownership.
- Location matters more than the market as a whole: transport (LRT), new districts and renovation create local premiums that can differ markedly from averages.
Current prices by district are in the Astana price index, the 2026 outlook in our earlier article, and you can model your own scenario in the ROI calculator.
How We Built the Outlook
The scenarios were built by our editorial team from the National Bank's official forecasts (inflation, rate), BNS price and transaction statistics, Halyk Finance research, Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan mortgage data and the Homsters new-build catalog. The base scenario is anchored to the inflation forecast range; the alternatives reflect deviations in key drivers. We do not use unverifiable expert estimates and update the outlook as new data comes out.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will apartments in Astana get more expensive in 2027?
In our base scenario — yes, roughly in line with inflation: new builds by 7–10%, resale by 5–8%. The National Bank forecasts 6.5–8.5% inflation in 2027. This is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Will housing in Astana get cheaper?
No nominal price decline is expected in the base scenario. In real terms, however, resale housing is already getting cheaper: in July 2026 it rose 9.5% y/y across Kazakhstan with inflation at 10.2%.
How will VAT affect new-build prices in 2027?
16% VAT applies to housing sales in projects started after January 1, 2026. Such projects will reach the market gradually, so pressure on launch prices will build in 2027–2028.
What could accelerate price growth?
Faster base-rate cuts, expanded funding for subsidized mortgages and strong demand for new projects. In that scenario new builds could rise 10–14% in a year.
When will you update the outlook?
After Q3 2026 data is published and the National Bank's base-rate decision on October 23, 2026.
Sources
- National Bank of Kazakhstan, 04.09.2026: rate decision and inflation forecast (in Russian) — nationalbank.kz
- Inform.kz, 09.07.2026: housing prices per BNS, June 2026 (in Russian) — inform.kz
- Kursiv, 26.08.2026: resale housing cheaper in real terms, Halyk Finance (in Russian) — kz.kursiv.media
- Kursiv, 13.04.2026: how housing prices will rise in 2H 2026 (in Russian) — kz.kursiv.media
- Krisha.kz: mortgage rate cap from July 1, 2026 (in Russian) — krisha.kz
- Tengrinews, 15.06.2026: mortgage market in Q1 2026 (in Russian) — tengrinews.kz
- LS: new tax realities and the housing market (in Russian) — lsm.kz
- Bureau of National Statistics: housing completions in 2025 (in Russian) — stat.gov.kz
- Tengrinews: National Bank study on LRT and prices (in Russian) — tengrinews.kz
- Homsters, 31.08.2026: Astana development to 2035 (in Russian) — info.homsters.kz