Rental Business in Astana 2026: Residential vs Commercial Real Estate — Where is the higher yield?
By 2026, the rental market in Astana has transformed: migration growth and the development of business hubs on the Left Bank (Nura district and EXPO territory) have formed a stable demand for high-quality space. An investor faces a classic question: invest capital in "understandable" apartments or take a risk by entering the commercial segment?
As a financial analyst, I have analyzed data for both segments over the last quarter, and the results show that the "just buy and rent" strategy no longer works. Precise calculation of ROI (return on investment) is needed.
🏠 Residential Real Estate: Stability or High Turnover?
In 2026, two strategies dominate the residential sector of Astana: classic long-term rental and aggressive short-term via digital platforms.
- Long-term rental: Provides a net yield at the level of 5–7% per annum. Main demand is concentrated on 1-2 bedroom apartments in Almaty and Yesil districts.
- Short-term rental (Daily): With professional management, it can bring up to 11–13% per annum. However, this business requires either 24/7 personal involvement or payment for management company services (15–20% of turnover).
«In 2026, investors began mass-transitioning to the "homestaging" format. An apartment with designer decor and thoughtful lighting is rented out 25% faster and 15% more expensive than analogues in the same residential complex», — experts note.
Analysis of the Astana Real Estate Market in 2026
🏢 Commercial Real Estate: Street Retail and "Flexible" Offices
The commercial sector is traditionally considered more profitable but requires a higher entry threshold and a deep understanding of traffic.
The hottest direction in 2026 has become street retail on the first floors of new residential complexes in the area of the new mosque and Turan Avenue. Demand for premises for coffee shops, pharmacies, and pick-up points (PZOs) exceeds supply.
Office Spaces
In the post-pandemic era of 2026, Astana is seeing a shortage of small B+ class offices (20-50 sq.m). Large corporations are moving away from giant Open Spaces towards distributed teams, making small office spaces a liquid asset.
How to Calculate the Yield of Real Estate Investments
Example ROI Calculation for an Apartment in Astana
Calculation: (2,160,000 - 450,000) / 25,000,000 × 100% = 6.8% net yield
📊 Comparative Yield Analysis of Rental Real Estate (ROI) in 2026
| Parameter | Residential (1-room RC) | Commercial (Street Retail) | Office (Class B+) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry Threshold | Medium (from 18M ₸) | High (from 45M ₸) | Medium (from 25M ₸) |
| Average Yield | 6–9% per annum | 10–14% per annum | 9–11% per annum |
| Vacancy Risk | Low (demand is always there) | Medium (depends on traffic) | High (depends on economy) |
| Payback Period | 11–14 years | 7–9 years | 9–10 years |
Best Districts for Investment in Astana
EXPO Territory
ROI: 12-15%Turan
ROI: 10-13%Nura
ROI: 9-11%🛠 Expert Hack: "Hybrid Rental" Strategy
In 2026, experienced investors in Astana use a method I call the «Seasonal Split».
The essence of the hack: If your property is located near exhibition centers or the administrative block, use short-term rentals during peak periods (forums, holidays, summer) when prices soar 2–3 times. For "quiet" months (January-February), conclude medium-term rental agreements (for 2–3 months) with business tourists or AIFC students. This allows for raising the average annual yield of a residential object from 7% to 10.5% without the wear and tear typical of constant daily hiring.
Practical Investment Tips
Check the Developer
Use the official registries of the Committee for Construction and Housing. Pay attention to the number of objects delivered and the financial stability of the company.
Calculate All Expenses
Include property taxes, utility services, management company fees, repairs, and possible periods without tenants in your calculation.
Study the District Infrastructure
Evaluate transport accessibility, the presence of schools, hospitals, shopping centers, and other social infrastructure.
Think About the Future
Study urban development plans. New metro stations, roads, and public spaces can significantly increase real estate value.
📝 Summary: What Should an Investor Choose?
If your goal is "capital preservation" and minimal hassle, your choice in 2026 is residential real estate in the EXPO area or along the new LRT line. If you are aimed at "maximum cash flow" and are ready for a long search for a tenant — invest in street retail in actively developing micro-districts of the Left Bank.
Remember that in commercial real estate, "technical features" are critically important: power grid capacity, availability of exhaustion, and the number of entrance groups. In residential — "visual code" and proximity to social facilities.
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